Knights of the Roundtable, Vol. 1

Welcome to a new feature here at AGU where a panel of “experts” will discuss a variety of topics pertaining to Major League Baseball. The panel consists of 10 guys who are (roughly) ages 25-37. Five are lawyers, three are graduate students, one is an engineer, and one is in the media. Two are married with children, if you can believe it. All are fantasy baseball players and many are Moneyball/sabermetric disciples. Our first installment will try to wade through allegiances, thoughts on the game at-large, and the upcoming season. Future installments will be increasingly moment-relevant.

What tidbits will you find in the first edition? Entirely too many people know who Kosuke Fukudome is. We are very optimistic about our favorite teams. Chad thinks Scott Boras is a butterface. A-Rod is still a consensus candidate for #1 fantasy baseball pick. Peter Gammons can do no wrong and we don’t agree on what should be done with the DH.

1) Who is your favorite team?

Steve: Florida Marlins

Tom: Detroit Tigers

Jon: NY Mets

Chad: Detroit Tigers

Pat: Chicago Cubs

Dan: Boston Red Sox

Aaron: Detroit Tigers

Damon: Detroit Tigers

Bryan: Boston Red Sox

Ryan: Detroit Tigers

2) What is your prediction for your team’s record and how far will they advance in the playoffs (if they make it)?

Steve (Marlins): 81-81 if they stay healthy, no playoffs.

Tom (Tigers): 94-68, something in that ball park. Admittedly, I’m just grabbing the 07 Yankees record, since the NYY led the league in runs, which I hope (expect) the Tigers to do this year, but I have serious concerns about the pitching staff (healthy, particularly, with Rogers and Bonderman, and a thin bullpen) and could see an 07 Yankees-like team ERA in the mid 4 range as well. Considering the Twins were gutted by the loss of Santana and the ChiSox continue to make stupid moves, the AL East is much stronger than the Central, so 94 wins is probably conservative, at least I hope.

Jon (Mets): 95-67, World Series Champs.

Chad (Tigers): 140-22+ World Series Champs (why are they even playing the season . . . just give the Tigers their rings now.)

Pat (Cubs): Cubs should make the playoffs, either as division winners or as wildcard team. I would hope that they could at least win the first series.

Dan (Red Sox): 103-59, World Series champs (again).

Aaron (Tigers): 101-61, World Series Champs (±5 wins based on DD tweaking the pitching or not).

Damon (Tigers): 92+ wins…represent AL in World Series.

Bryan (Red Sox): I’ll say 93-69, and first place in the AL East. I think they can repeat as champs, so I’ll predict that they will. I’ll also say that if they fail to make the World Series it will be at the hands of the Indians.

Ryan (Tigers): 99-63. Division Champs (by 4 games over Cleveland); American League Champs. Loss in World Series (to the Dodgers or the Mets).

3) Give me one player to watch from your team and one player to watch from the league at-large.

Steve: Hanley Ramirez – most underrated player in baseball, put up better numbers last year than Rollins. King Felix Hernandez could have a historic season.

Tom: No reason to be cute – Miguel Cabrera. I’m hoping he makes a run at the doubles mark playing in the CoPa, and I’m hoping his presence in the lineup produces an ‘08 season for Ordoñez more comparable to his career highs of ‘07 than his pre-’07 averages. League at large – Juan Gonzalez? Joke. My proximity to Wrigley might skew my answer, but if Kosuke Fukudome has half the success this year that a few others left-handed Japanese stars have had in the MLBs, the Cubs might finally have the left-handed bat they desperately needed last year. (apologies to Daryle Ward and Jacque Jones)

Jon: Duaner Sanchez – if he’s healthy again, the Mets bullpen improves greatly from last year. Cole Hamels – if he takes another step forward, he could be unhittable.

Chad: Brandon Inge – he is angry and he is the best all-around athlete in baseball. Kosuke Fukudome – Fukudome = nuff said

Pat: Derrek Lee is due for a bounce-back year. His wrist should be fully healed by now and with the Soriano, Ramirez and the Japanese import, he should see plenty of good pitches and have a ton of RBI chances. At large it will be interesting to see how both Haren and Santana do in the NL. Also, interesting to see how Ryan Braun does in his sophomore effort.

Dan: Jacoby Ellsbury, i.e. the reason Johan Santana isn’t pitching for the Red Sox. Had a monster end of season and postseason, legitimate five tool player, and will easily take the starting job from Coco. Nick Swisher. Everyone’s been waiting on him to fulfill the Moneyball potential, he’s finally in a lineup that can protect him, in a park that cannot protect baseballs.

Aaron: Dontrelle Willis. One, because I can’t believe he’ll be in a Tiger uniform. Two, his stats have been in decline and he’s moving to a better hitters’ league. He’s at a crossroads in his career, IMO. He could end up anywhere from an above average starter to a set-up role. Santana/Haren. NL hitters are gonna get it and they don’t even know it.

Damon: Watch for Dontrelle Willis to get off to an extremely hot start for the Detroit Tigers, similar to Bronson Arroyo 2 years ago when he was traded from Boston to Cincinnati. Subsequently, he will fade in the 2nd half when AL hitters adjust to his unusual wind-up. Kosuke Fukudome will help the Chicago Cubs run away with the NL Central. After that, all bets are off.

Bryan: Clay Buchholz – With Schilling on the shelf, Clay looks like the man for that 5th spot in the rotation. He is projected to be a #1 starter someday, and with a MLB no-hitter already under his belt, it will be interesting to see if he can live up to some of that hype at the age of 23. Joba Chamberlain – Even if he is as dominant as a starter as he was as a reliever, will the Yankees blow enough late leads to consider this a mistake? The Joba/Rivera combo kept the Yankees from crumbling last year, and one has to wonder if it will be their demise in a loaded American League.

Ryan: Gary Sheffield – Last year he was injured, but this year, injury or not, we learn that he is no longer an elite player; he’s above average at best. (Note: Regardless of Sheffield’s performance, because offense won’t be a problem, D-Train is the key) Underachievers: Ryan Braun – He endures the infamous “sophomore slump.” Derek Jeter – Shows signs of age, fails to play 140 games, fails to hit double digit home runs, and fails to hit .300. Carlos Pena – Fails to hit 25 home runs. Break-outs: Matt Kemp (if he plays every day) and Hunter Pence. (Note: Johan Santana and Dan Haren are going to dominate in the NL)

4) In any order, name three players you would consider for the number one overall fantasy draft pick. Write “forget it” if this information is classified.

Steve: Reyes, A-Rod, Magglio Ordoñez.

Tom: A-Rod, Cabrera, Reyes

Jon: (Editor’s note: No answer.)

Chad: A-Rod, Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana

Pat: A-Rod, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday.

Dan: Gayrod, Santana, Reyes

Aaron: Probably only A-Rod and Miguel Cabrera, but not sure yet.

Damon: Forget it.

Bryan: Hanley Ramirez, A-Rod, Jose Reyes

Ryan: Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez, Johan Santana

5) Who are your three favorite baseball writers? Explain if necessary.

Steve: Bill Simmons, Tim Kurkijijigan, Peter Gammons.

Tom: Ken Tremendous, Junior, Dak, and, no sadly, I’m not kidding. But of the “non-blogging” variety I like Tim Kurkjian and very little else.

Jon: Matt Cerrone (metsblog.com), Rob Neyer, Ken Tremendous.

Chad: I can’t read so no comment on this one.

Pat: I usually just listen to them but – Peter Gammons, Buster Olney, Jayson Stark.

Dan: Olney, Gammons, Will McDonough (Boston Globe, deceased).

Aaron: Gammons, Ken Tremendous, and Keith Law. Locally, I like Danny Knobler (Mlive.com) although at times he’s woefully inept (like the trade deadline).

Damon: Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, Danny Knobler (Tigers beat writer – knows all).

Bryan: Peter Gammons – because he ALWAYS has the most information. Buster Olney – because his blog on the four-letter is an amazing resource.

Ryan: Peter Gammons, Ken Rosenthal (trade rumormonger), Ken Tremendous

6) Would you like the leagues to establish the same rule with regard to the DH? Which way, pitcher batting or DH?

Steve: Leave as is.

Tom: Even though most baseball fans I know have an opinion on this, I don’t really care about it, so I guess the answer is no. I’m fine with different rules– baseball doesn’t pride itself on uniformity of rules (hence the different dimensions at parks, etc.), and I can see both sides– the purist in me likes all players to play both ways, whereas the American League fan in me would rather watch Gary Sheffield hit than having the 9 spot be a sure out, or watch Doug Drabek pull a hammy sliding into third. In short, I’m fine with how it is.

Jon: No DH.

Chad: If I had to pick, then I prefer making the pitcher’s hit because it adds another element to coaching strategy. However, I am fine with NL having pitchers hit and AL with the DH because it adds an interesting twist during inter-league games and the World Series.

Pat: I would prefer no DH, but that will never happen considering the players union and how it basically allows inept fielders who can hit to continue their careers and pile up that cheddar.

Dan: No, keep it funky, gives coaches something to do.

Aaron: Straight DH. I get the whole “intricacy of the game idea” or “tradition” argument, but really, who cares? There’s nothing more annoying than seeing the bottom of a NL order have two outs with the runners on and the SP coming up early in the game or 0-1 outs and knowing he’s going to sacrifice. What’s exciting about that? The pitchers look ridiculous 95% of the time they actually try to get a hit. Two other reasons. People make the argument that the DH allows guys who can’t field to extend their careers. I would argue that not having it allows 80 mph chuckers like Glavine, Wells, Moyer, and so on to stay in the game far too long. These guys aren’t good anymore and the fact that SP run to the NL late in their careers is evidence. It’s harmful to the NL’s competitiveness. The MLBPA would likely approve the NL DH, as well.

Damon: Yes, pitcher batting.

Bryan: I’m biased because I follow an American League team, but I like the DH and think both leagues should adopt it. Would football be better or worse if the Kicker had to play QB every tenth drive? Sure, there might be more strategy involved if that was the case, but it would not make for a better product. (Editor’s note: Bryan made the point I was trying to make in roughly 15,000 less words.)

Ryan: Yes, and I’d prefer the pitchers hit, but it will never happen. The MLBPA will never allow it because they need to keep the Matt Stairs of the world employed. Also, kids specialize as pitchers at a fairly young age (and in the minors) so the drain on offense would make the game less enjoyable to the casual fan who does not appreciate the intricacies of the NL style of play. I actually think it’s more likely that they’d switch to the DH in both leagues in order to keep offense up, but that’s not at all likely either.

7) Describe Scott Boras, A-Rod, and Joe Morgan in one word or term.

Steve: Boras – unconscionable; A-Rod – amazing; Morgan – moron.

Tom: Boras – exploiter; A-Rod – Hall of Fame; Morgan – Dave Concepcion.

Jon: Boras – Douche; A-Rod – awesome; Morgan – entertaining.

Chad: Boras – Butter-Face (good body but his face is ugly), A-Rod – HOT!, Joe Morgan – Bankteller-Syndrome (pretty face but he has a big ass).

Pat: Boras – Narcissistic a-hole; A-Rod – stat-driven; Morgan – senile.

Dan: The problem.

Aaron: Boras – misunderstood; A-Rod – incredible; Morgan – ignorant.

Damon: Boras – ass; A-Rod – ass; Morgan – dumbass.

Bryan: Boras – boring (i heard him speak a few months ago); A-Rod – too intense; Morgan – muteworthy

Ryan: Boras – Over-the-top (and full of himself); A-Rod – Individual (and full of himself); Joe Morgan – incompetent (and full of himself).

8.) What non-favorite team do you like to watch play?

Steve: Colorado last year, great mix of vets and young guys who were exciting to watch.

Tom: Actually, there are a lot, but I’ll narrow it down to the Angels and Cubs– the former because I love Vlad Guerrero and think that the Angels have constructed a nice balance to their lineup and rotation, and the Cubs because I live a half mile from Wrigley, have always appreciated their tradition as a kid, and like their pitching staff (even without Prior/Wood, now).

Jon: Cubs – baseball games at Wrigley are as good as it gets.

Chad: Chicago Cubs because Wrigley is awesome and it is so fun to root for them to finally win it all but you know deep down they are never going to do it.

Pat: Braves – grew up watching them on TBS, top 5 favorite teams, should have won at least 1 more WS – see Twins, f-ing game seven and Yankees, losing four straight after up 2-0 – what the F?

Dan: Cubs, because it’s incredible how many ways they can find to lose a baseball game.

Aaron: Probably Milwaukee. I like watching young talent.

Damon: If not watching Detroit, I love watching Boston. I could watch Papi bat all day long.

Bryan: Yankees, because i enjoy their losses almost as much as Red Sox wins.

Ryan: I like to watch the Dodgers so I can listen to Vin Scully call the game without the unhelpful color commentary guy. I also like to watch the Marlins and all of their young talent. I can’t stand watching the White Sox because of Hawk.

9) On-going PED investigations – important or ready to move forward?

Steve: Relevant but exhausting.

Tom: Incredibly important if it leads to the league getting serious about testing all players and adopting some of the methods used by the World Doping Agency– utterly irrelevant if the only outcome is name-smearing and blame-shifting.

Jon: Important, until people learn to own up and not lie.

Chad: I am in favor of MLB setting the rule that if a player gets caught on the juice, then he is done. No chance for reinstatement, ever. That would send the proper message. I know that is never going to happen so let’s just move forward.

Pat: Could care less. Lets just move on.

Dan: Important that it’s out there as a real threat, but now it’s pure grandstanding – time for my tax dollars to fix a few potholes.

Aaron: Ready to move forward. Yes, it is important, but at this point minutiae of the arguments is well beyond what I could ever care.

Damon: Important…very.

Bryan: PED investigations should only stop when the game is cleaned up…which it’s not. I just wish it would focus more on the present/future than on the past. Trying to pretend PEDs are a past problem will put us in the same position 15 years from now.

Ryan: Important to the game and to history, but I’m ready to move on because they aren’t being done in a meaningful way (and never will be) without full cooperation from both the owners and the union.

10) Who is best and worst GM in the game?

Steve: Best – Dave Dombrowski (DET); Worst – Jon Daniels (TX).

Tom: Best – Dave Dombrowski, bias or not– one of the few GMs that I think has shown he can succeed in any economic environment. Could Cashman succeed on the Marlins or Royals? Beane on the Yankees/Red Sox? Mark Shapiro is pretty sweet, too. Worst: Brian Sabean. The Giants under his guidance have been pretty successful despite him.

Jon: I liked Jocketty best, but I think he’s out of work. Jim Duquette, if he’ still the top guy in Baltimore is terrible. He traded Kazmir for Victor Zambrano.

Chad: Dave Dombrowski = Best, Brian Cashman = Worst.

Pat: Billy Beane/whoever runs the Braves – best. Not sure about the worst.

Dan: Best: Gotta say Theo, two World Series in four years, in that town, with that history…no small feat. Worst: Steve Phillips. I don’t care if he’s not a GM, he’s still the gold standard.

Aaron: Dombrowski, with the addendum I like what the Brewers and Royals are doing. Worst: tie between Kenny Williams and Jim Bowden.

Damon: Best – Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers; Worst – Jim Bowden, Washington Nationals.

Bryan: While I love Theo Epstein, he does have the 2nd highest payroll to work with. I think Billy Beane is among the best, for the way he keeps the A’s competitive every year. Mark Shapiro seems to know what he’s doing in Cleveland as well. As far as the worst, I’ll say Ed Wade of the Astros based on the things he did with the Phillies over the last decade and the questionable moves he’s already made in Houston.

Ryan: Best – Dave Dombrowski (second – Billy Beane). Worst – Wayne Krivsky (Dave Littlefield finally got fired).

In our next installment we will predict division and wild-card winners as well as our fantasy team’s finish, discuss what went right and wrong in our fantasy baseball drafts, compare the league structure of MLB vs. other sports, unveil sleeper teams, make bold predictions, and more.

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Tags: Knights of the Roundtable, moneyball, omg fantasy baseball

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